New Delhi: Events of the last fortnight in East Bengal have definitely changed the entire political, military and economic outlook both for Pakistan and India. Whatever the immediate outcome of the armed conflict now in progress in Bangla Desh, the violence let loose by West Pakistani troops on fellow Moslems in East Bengal has forever split the ties between the two wings. As the terrain of the land and the temper of the Bengali are suited for a long guerilla struggle, observers in New Delhi believe that eventually Pakistan will consist only of the western provinces.

The unanimous resolution adopted by both houses of the Indian parliament, while it extends unqualified moral support to the fighters of East Bengal, does not exactly reflect the feelings of the people. A large number of informed observers wanted quicker action by India in international forums and a more vigorous response to the call for support and recognition.

With a history of continuous conflict with Pakistan and unfriendly relations with China, India has been over- cautious in its reactions to the strife in East Bengal. New Delhi's total ban on all overflights by Pakistani aircraft following the February hijacking incident has been an immense relief to the people of Bangla Desh; if the ban continues during the monsoon months Pakistan will find it increasingly difficult to reinforce its troops-who will be also subjected to ever-growing guerilla onslaughts.

When this phase is reached, there is bound to be a popular upsurge in neighbouring states of India and large but clandestine assistance to the freedom fighters cannot be ruled out. But at the moment India is strictly adhering to international norms in dealing with the problem.

While New Delhi's sympathies lie with the aspirations of the people of East Bengal, there is fear here that the breakup of Pakistan would not be altogether in India's interests. For one thing, after secession both new states would increasingly depend on big power support, becoming fertile ground for military and economic penetration by the US, China or the Soviet Union.

Militarily India would be much better placed. Whatever the new regime in East Bengal, it would probably not seek to embarrass New Delhi over any future quarrels between India and West Pakistan or China. The universal condemnation of Pakistani military excesses, New Delhi hopes, will also lead to a fresh appraisal in the United States and the Soviet Union of the advisability of giving further arms to West Pakistan.

Even more significant is the political advantage India could derive from East Bengal's secession from Pakistan. The theory that Islam can be a stronger binding force than other affinities among peoples has proved hollow- and Pakistan has staked its claim to Kashmir on the ground that 80~o of the people of Kashmir profess Islam. What little international backing Pakistan had over the Kashmir dispute is also expected to vanish after the vandalism in East Bengal.

But for the human tragedy involved and the unequal battle the Bengalis are fighting, India has every reason to sit tight and watch the developing situation without involving itself directly.