New Delhi: By the end of the month some three million people from East Pakistan will have crossed into India as refugees, 60% of them Hindus, 30% Moslems and the balance Buddhists and Christians. They are not political refugees - these may number only a couple of thousand - but old people, women and children whose homes have been destroyed or who fear they will fall victim to the Pakistan military machine.

The bulk of the refugees are accommodated in camps in the border Indian states of Assam, Tripura, Meghalaya and Manipur. The camps are makeshift with no protection against the oncoming monsoon or possible outbreak of epidemics. For India it is a great burden but on humanitarian grounds it has not been possible to seal the long border or insist on valid papers for the refugees to enter India. Consequently eventual repatriation will be a serious problem.

Apparently Pakistan has been driving out all inhabitants from a 25-mile belt directly across the Indian border, perhaps with the intention of getting dependable West Pakistan settlers to occupy this strategic and sensitive area. Both the Indian government and the UN Refugee Relief Committee have organised relief measures on the optimistic assumption that the refugees will be able to return to their homeland in about six months. Pakistan, which often has accused India of sending "intruders" into East Bengal, is bound to raise obstacles to prevent their return.

Prime Minister Indira Gandhi is worried about this situation and as India's motivations are based on humanitarian considerations, it looks certain that India will end up having to find homes and work for the bulk of the refugees. They will be able to return only if the bid to carve out a separate Bangla Desh (Bengal nation) is successful.

International response to Mrs Gandhi's appeal for generous help to feed and house the refugees was at first disappointing. But following the UN Refugee Relief Committee findings and U Thant's appeal, large donations of cash, food, milk powder and medicines have been promised. India has told the UN that India's own effort, considerable in itself, will have to be underwritten to the extent of Rs2,000 million by other nations.

However, the main problem is not money. What is needed is an organisation efficient enough to distribute relief supplies and a team of doctors and nurses to look after the health of the migrants. Communication and transport in Tripura, Manipur and Assam will become increasingly difficult as the summer rains set in. Railway lines in some of these states are far from the border areas.

Because of the health hazard, some of the states have demanded that the refugees be spread out to other states. But Mrs Gandhi has resisted this mainly because their continued encampment in the border zone will facilitate repatriation, if necessary under UN supervision. Neither is she sure that all entrants are genuine refugees. If some of them are agents and spies of the Pakistan government, Delhi feels they should be confined to specific areas where a check can be made of their movements.

If the refugees do not return soon, India will have many more serious problems to face. Social tensions are already building up in the border regions. The refugees already are in the labour market and there is competition for work as farm hands. The people of West Bengal feel they are being displaced by cheaper labour. Some refugees have crossed over with their hand-drawn rickshaws, others their tools of trade. In the acute employment situation already prevailing in the region, the sudden influx of a large number seeking jobs could lead to violence and chaos.

Attempts also will be made by interested parties to rouse communal passions. In Assam there have been some incidents since the East Pakistan exodus began. In the present context even a minor incident involving individuals could lead to a conflagration engulfing large groups of Hindus and Moslems.

Some people in India believe that the ultimate objectives of Pakistan are to eliminate all the minorities from the eastern wing and to place new strains on India's economy. There are approximately eight million Hindus in East Pakistan. If India has to undertake responsibility for all these, there will be demands in India that an equal number of Moslems be expelled from India. India has about 63 million Moslems.

There is no doubt that for peace in India and Pakistan, Islamabad must change its policy of repression in East Pakistan. only by granting the democratic right of dissent can the situation be retrieved.