NEW DELHI, Sept. 15—A World Bank report has concluded that India's economic development could be seriously stunted by the cost of supporting the millions of Bengali refugees who have fled into India from East Pakistan.

According to authoritative sources, the report—which was prepared by the World Bank unit in India and has been sent to the agency's headquarters in Washington—suggests that most of the refugees will remain permanently in India and that a substantial increase in foreign aid will be needed to create jobs and rehabilitate them here.

Indian Government figures, which the World Bank accepts, show that about 8.5 million refugees have poured into India in the nearly six months since the Pakistani Government began its military effort to crush the Bengali separatist movement in East Pakistan.

A Million a Month

The influx is reported continuing at 30,000 to 40,000 daily, which is roughly one million new refugees a month.

Officials of the World Bank here declined to comment on the report. The World Bank, formally known as the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development, has been sensitive about its reports on the East Pakistani crisis since an earlier report,’ describing conditions in East Pakistan, was leaked to the press and drew angry protests from Pakistani Government officials.

That report, by a special Washington team, concluded that East Pakistan had been so ravaged that new international development efforts “will have to remain in a state of suspension for at least the next year or so.”

The new report by the bank's New Delhi staff, which visited refugee camps late last month, avoids any mention of military action and sticks to an analysis of the cost of caring for refugees and the impact on the strained Indian economy.

Military Aspect Ignored

The report, authoritative sources said, estimated that of the present 8.5 million refugees, 6 million were living in camps and the rest with friends and relatives. The World Bank used only the camp population in estimating costs, because it was too difficult to assess with any degree of accuracy the burden on the economy of those living elsewhere.

The report estimated that if the camp population rose to nine million by the end of December, as expected, the cost of the refugees in India's 1971– 72 fiscal year will be $700‐ million. Foreign countries have pledged relief aid of $200‐million, but even if all of it is delivered before the end of the fiscal year in March, which some observers doubt, India's burden will be $500‐million.

Serious Jolt to Economy

This represents nearly 20 per cent of the Indian Government's planned development program for the fiscal year of 1971–72‐ a serious jolt to an economy that must sustain development momentum if it is to keep pace with an annual population increase of 13 million.

Put another way, the net total of foreign aid’ for development purposes that India will receive in the 1971–72 fiscal year will be consumed by the cost of the refugees. Total foreign development aid, nearly all of which comes from a consortium of 13 nations acting under the World Bank umbrella, will be $1‐billion for the fiscal year. But over $600‐million of this must’ go to repay previous foreign debts, leaving $400‐million for development use—not enough to cover the $500‐million refugee bill.

Even gloomier for India is the fact that World Bank officials here according to the authoritative sources predict that the impact will be much more severe next year.

In any case, costs will shoot up next year because of delayed impact. According to the sources, bank officials say that the impact on development this fiscal year is cushioned by large food stocks and an excess of labor and administrative re sources.

Camps May Increase

Moreover, the debt service on foreign loans is increasing, which will leave less foreign aid for development next year. On top of this, bank officials are said to feel that as time goes on, most of the refugees now living with friends and relatives will—because of the burden on their hosts—eventually move into the camps.

The burden of the report is that the problem was thrust on India and that the world community should not expect New Delhi to bear the bulk of the costs. Diplomatic observers here, however, are doubtful that there will be an increase in foreign aid of the necessary magnitude. Some, in fact, think that foreign interest in the refugee problem will wane as the months go by and the situation remains unchanged.

The World Bank itself has so far played a passive role, committing none of its own money for relief. The problem, bank officials say, is the organization's charter, which generally limits its aid to projects involving development and reconstruction. But some officials feel that the charter could be stretched to cover a relief operation and that some aid might eventually be arranged through the International Development Association, the soft loan arm of the World Bank.