NEW DELHI, Nov. 2—Under heavy diplomatic and military pressure, India seems to be toughening her policy toward Pakistan and toward what she considers a lack of understanding by Western nations—particularly the United States.
Prime Minister Indira Gandhi's decision to go ahead with her current three week trip to the West—she arrives in the United States tomorrow —gives the impression of both self‐confidence and a lack of interest in attacking Pakistan.
At the same time, the hard line speeches of her Defense Minister, Jagjivan Ram, seem to be aimed at warning Pakistan of the heavy price she would pay if she started a fight with the Indian armed forces, which all observers consider superior.
It appears clear that Mrs. Gandhi will spell out her hard line when she meets with President Nixon on Thursday. But it is much less clear whether she will receive a sympathetic response.
Washington's apparent short term goal, according to analysts here, is to prevent the crisis on the subcontinent from upset ting the President's global plans for improving relations with both Peking and Moscow.
U. S. Irritation Noted
Recent remarks by Administration officials indicate that the White House has grown increasingly irritated over India's latest position. This includes a refusal to accept United Nations observers, a refusal to withdraw Indian troops from the borders until the Pakistanis halt the flow of refugees into India by stopping “their atrocities” in East Pakistan, and a refusal to accept mediation either by the United Nations or a third country, on the ground that there is nothing to negotiate until Pakistan reaches a political settlement with the elected leaders of the autonomy movement in East Pakistan.
American officials now charge privately that India is eager to weaken her old enemy, Pakistan —that she is helping the Bengali insurgents in East Pakistan —not to protect Indian interests but to hasten Pakistan's disintegration.
In short, United States officials are saying that India is being unreasonable.
But most Western diplomats here, while acknowledging that there is room for more accommodation in India's policy, suggest that it is the United States that is being unreasonable. They point out that the Americans have urged restraint on India without offering her any reassurances, and without putting forth any specific proposals to solve the root problem in East Pakistan and thus ease the pressures created by the millions of refugees.
Arms Shipments Cited
Worse, these diplomats argue, Washington has appeared to favor Pakistan by continuing to ship arms to her and by refusing to criticize the Pakistani military operation openly.
“I'm skeptical,” said one diplomat, “about the efficacy of diplomatic initiatives that counsel restraint without sympathy or positive proposals about the basic issue.”
Mrs. Gandhi, at a news conference before her trip, declared: “As you know, every body admires our restraint. We get the verbal praise and the others, who are not restrained, get arms support.”
As American relations with India have plunged to a new low, Soviet relations with her have soared. By signing a friendship treaty with New Delhi in August and assuring the Indians that Moscow would be on their side' should the Pakistanis attack, the Russians have been able to counsel restraint on the Indians gracefully and thus strengthen their influence not only in India but also in East Pakistan.
They have done all this with out completely cutting their lines to Pakistan, and many observers think that Moscow is looking ahead to the possibility of playing mediator again—as it did at Tashkent after the brief Indian‐Pakistani war in 1965.
The reservoir of Indian‐American goodwill, though greatly diluted, is still extant. But if an other war breaks out between India and Pakistan, many Indians may begin to look on the United States as their out‐and‐ out enemy.
The consensus among analysts here is that the likelihood of war is not great for the next month or so. But they feel that the odds could change quickly —depending on the trend of the civil war in East Pakistan and on the extent to which the world community is moved to act.
Foreign observers foresee mounting tension as the Bengali insurgents, aided by India, increase their pressure on the Pakistan Army, and the army in turn increases its attempts to wipe them out. This tension, they feel, could peak in December or January.
A Warning Likely
Observers believe that Mrs. Gandhi's objective in the United States is to convince President Nixon that unless he persuades Pakistan to change her present course, it may not be possible to avert war.
The 53‐year‐old Prime Minister will also try to increase pressure on the Administration by rallying American public opinion to her side—in an address to the National Press Club in Washington and on national television.
A few months ago, a European diplomat here remarked, “Pakistan is a drowning dog. India doesn't have to push its head under.”
But Pakistan is barking loudly at India. If India feels threatened, many observers believe, she may decide to push.