Islamabad: In the wake of embarrassing newspaper speculation, the martial law authorities have apparently found it necessary to end its silence about the fate of the man who "waged war against Pakistan" - Sheikh Mujibur Rahman. Rumour had taken many forms, with some circles even venturing to suggest the sheikh might be released on parole.

The government obviously does not relish this. It cautioned that "people should in their own interest refrain from saying or doing anything which may constitute a contempt of court or a breach of secrecy of the trial proceedings or which may tend to prejudice the case of either the defence or prosecution". But by the time it spoke out, the Pakistani papers appeared almost convinced the special military tribunal had passed the sentence and forwarded it to President Yahya Khan for final decision.

Not that the verdict was the object of open speculation; since the charge was known the precedent seemed only too near at hand. But interestingly, all theories had begun centering around the assumption Yahya would exercise his right "of showing clemency by minimising the punishment provided a mercy petition is submitted to him for his kind and sympathetic consideration", as Islamabad's New Times put it.

This assumption gained impetus in the past few weeks for several reasons. The president himself, for instance, appeared to be at pains to play down Mujib's role: he no longer called him a traitor who must be hanged, but a "little cat" which could be left to die a natural death. Then the sheikh's wife, Begum Lutfunnesa, was received by East Pakistan's new governor, Abdul Motaleb Malik, and reportedly given to understand she should contemplate petitioning the president for mercy. The papers even started publishing daily bulletins on the health of Mujib's aged parents, and former air marshal Asghar Khan who visited them in a Dacca hospital disclosed the 91-year-old father had sent a telegram to Yahya asking to see his son.

A further hint of a possible easing of the line taken over the Awami League's leader was the firm denial by the eastern wing's PDP (Pakistan Democratic Party) leader, Nurul Amin, of newspaper claims that he had warned Yahya not to release Mujib because that would make the situation even more difficult. And PPP (Pakistan People's Party) leader Zulfikar Ali Bhutto finally observed, after having met Yahya: "We know for ourselves . . . that there was some sort of involvement of Sheikh Mujibur Rahman in the offence he is charged with. But we do not know how it transpired and the extent of the sheikh's involvement."

The president would take a considerable risk in personal political terms in the western wing in pardoning Mujib who, after all, was said to have forced the army to intervene in East Pakistan. But many countries have urged him to consider the humanitarian aspects of the sheikh's case and its implications for a political solution to the East Bengal crisis, and Yahya must be fully aware of the terrible effect a harsh punishment of Mujib would have on his regime's image abroad. So his inclusion in a general amnesty cannot be entirely ruled out any longer.

The antagonism between Pakistan and India can be regarded as much deeper than that between the president and Mujib; a face-saving operation could probably be arranged by picturing the sheikh as a man misled by his own extremists and Hindu - that is, Indian - propaganda and forced against his will to "wage war against Pakistan".

But the key question remains unanswered: would and could the sheikh enter into such a "deal" without losing face among his followers? And, even if he returned to his province with Yahya's promise it would be granted extensive autonomy, would the defeated and humiliated Bengalis accept him as their leader any longer?

As matters stood when the warning against speculating on Mujib's future was issued, the more realistic observers were still inclined to agree with a Western ambassador here who concluded: "Whatever the fate of Mujib, the Pakistani crisis is unlikely to be resolved even by a policy of forgiveness and forgetting, for after the brutal confrontation between the two wings there can't be any forgiving and forgetting either in East or West Pakistan - at least not in the foreseeable future."