UNITED NATIONS, N. Y., Dec. 16—The future of East Pakistan if it becomes an independent country is politically cloudy and economically uncertain.

This is the opinion of many delegates here and also of experts on the affairs of the subcontinent, both within and outside the United Nations.

“I cannot think of any country in worse shape,” remarked Edward S. Mason, a Harvard University economist who organized a mission in the nineteen‐fifties to advise the Pakistani Government on economic planning and who has continued to watch developments closely.

Others who share his opinion, at least in part, point to the ravages by 10 months of warfare, to the fragile economy of the region, to its frequent devastating floods and cyclones and to its perennial food shortages.

‘It Will Take a While’

A Western European, asked what chances he foresaw of United Nations membership for Bangladesh, as the Bengalis call East Pakistan, replied, “Nil for the moment.”

“Too many countries in Africa and elsewhere worry about their own problems with insurrectionists and are not in a rush to welcome a secessionist government,” he said. “It will Like a while before they are ready to face the fact—months at least, I would guess.”

By contrast, representatives of the secessionist movement who have been persistently lobbying for their cause here were obviously buoyed by the surrender of the Pakistani Army in the east.

Abu Sayeed Chowdhury, leader of a 16‐member group. predicted a bright future.

“We will be a viable state without question,” he said. “We will be a very prosperous, sovereign republic.”

Within a few days, Mr. Chowdhury said, the Bangladesh authorities plan to issue their own currency—paper and silver money. “We'll be self‐sufficient in grain soon, very soon, and our agriculture will be modernized,” he added.

Need for Aid Seen

The group said that membership in the United Nations would be sought “in due course.” possibly in the next few weeks.

East Pakistan's need for outside assistance will be staggering, according to informed observers here. They foresee long‐term dependence on foreign help as well as a need for immediate aid to cope with the war dislocations and the millions of refugees who will be returning now from India.

Jute production and manufacture is virtually the region's only source of foreign exchange. In one recent year, exports amounted to $310‐million‐90 per cent of all agricultural exports.

The future of the jute market, however, is uncertain because of the competition from synthetics, the increasing use of paper bags to replace jute and the growing practice of shipping bulk cargo by container vessels, which cuts down further on jute purchases.

A United States spokesman in Washington has announced that the Government is ready to supply “a great deal” of humanitarian aid on both sides of the Pakstani‐Indian border. One official has predicted that it will take hundreds of millions of dollars and that aid may be needed for 10 to 15 years. Washington already has given $150‐million for relief in East Pakistan and $90‐million for Pakistani refugees in India.

U.N. Preparing Aid

United Nations officials were poised to begin an all‐out assistance program. Estimates are being made privately that at least $10‐million is needed apart from foodstuffs to cover the most urgent needs, much of it for transportation costs.

The humanitarian aid program of the United Nations in East Pakistan came to a virtual stop early in December because of the fighting and interference by the military.

Many of the 107 staff members were evacuated but remained in Singapore or Bangkok and could return speedily enough for the relief operations to he in full swing in five or six days, officials here said. Thirty seven officials remained in Dacca.

One relief authority familiar with the subcontinent's economy saw prospects that recovery might be swifter than many predicted. He said:

“It strikes me that in an underdeveloped country, the reaction to devastation is very different than in a prosperous country or, put another way, you can't knock them down when they are flat on their backs. In such cases, there's a surprising resiliency mainly because this is not a complex or sophisticated country.”