ISLAMABAD, PAKISTAN - As tensions mount along the India-Pakistan border so does the possibility of war. It is a grim situation indeed, for any violent confrontation between the two now would undoubtedly be far more savage than their last war of 1965. The wounds of both countries are much deeper today.
But with the specters of Russia and Communist China hovering over the subcontinent, the picture become grimmer still. Any Indo-Pakistani war could conceivably suck in these two Communist superpowers, with Russia taking India's side and China taking Pakistan's.
It is a situation fraught with as much irony as tragedy. Six years ago the East Pakistan Rifles and the East Bengal Regiment fought on the Lahore front, and fought creditably. And an East Pakistani pilot, M. M. Alam was credited with downing more than a dozen Indian Planes.
But now the EPR and the EBR are in India, having revolted against Pakistan and sough sanctuary in India. They are making hit-and-run raids against Pakistan from bases in India, with arms and sometimes covering fire provided by the Indians. Mr. Alam is probably grounded - all East Pakistani pilots and crew members are.

Two Fronts to Cover

Should a new war erupt between India and Pakistan, West Pakistan will have to fight on both the eastern and western fronts this time, with half of its population displaying mixed loyalties.
And with all East Pakistanis still in the armed forces under suspicion, and those East Pakistanis who are in India siding with the Indians, Pakistan's position is hardly strengthened.
If there is one underlying cause of the tragedy in East Pakistan, it must be the hatred and mistrust between India and Pakistan.
And one certain result of the tragedy - assuming that a ware between Pakistan and India can somehow be prevented - will be to deepen the gulf between the two countries, making settlement of their disputes at least in the foreseeable future, improbable. Certainly there will be a continued diversion of scarce funds for military buildup in both countries.
All the ingredients of an explosion are right here. Pakistan charges (and diplomatic sources confirm) that India is providing arms, training, and sanctuaries to East Pakistani guerrillas for hit-and-run attacks on Pakistan and for sabotage in East Pakistan.
India asserts that Pakistan Army firing has killed numerous Indian citizens and that Pakistan would be held responsible for the consequences.
Pakistan levels the same charges against India and says it has captured Indian arms and even Indian troops inside Pakistan. India claims that these men were captured by the Pakistanis inside India and then kidnapped to Pakistan.

Guerrilla Training Reported

Diplomatic observers say that up to 75,000 guerrillas are being trained by India and provided with arms for attacks into East Pakistan from Indian bases.
Should these prove devastating, Pakistan might retaliate by destroying these bases or by undertaking sabotage of its own on India's eastern borders or in western India.
A couple of trains were derailed in Assam recently, and although Pakistan denied responsibility, this could be a warning that sabotage operations are a game that any nation can play. Pakistani jets also flew recently over Srinagar to buzz the same message.
If the Bengali guerrillas, on the other hand, make no impact, diplomats feel that India is sufficiently committed now so that it will step up its aid and training to keep the movement going.
Some Indians have already argued that fighting a war with Pakistan will be far cheaper than feeding and looking after the 8 million or so refugees who have left Pakistan for shelter in India.
Pakistan denies that it has victimized its Hindu population. It asserts that fears instilled by the Indian radio, sometimes masquerading as Bangla Desh radio made them flee. Pakistan contends that the number of Hindu refugees is closer to 2 million and that some 150,000 refugees are already back in Pakistan, many of them Hindu. The Pakistan Government claims that more would come if India would only cease border firing which prevents their return.

Financial Burden Imposed

India contends that the number of refugees is now 8 million and that they fled to escape persecution by the Pakistan Army and police. India further charges that the refugees are an intolerable burden on its economy, and that it cannot bear the cost indefinitely.
The situation practically guarantees that even if the two countries do not fight - and that is a big "if" - they would continue to spend huge amounts on defense when both are in pretty dismal economic shape.
The white paper recently put out by the Pakistan Government explaining its side of the East Pakistan crisis spoke of "direct evidence of India's collusion with antistate elements in East Pakistan." It also discussed the charge against Sheikh Mujibur Rahman of conspiracy with India, not as a charge which may or may not be true, but as a fact which has been conclusively proved.
The white paper asserted: "Several witnesses testified to Sheikh Mujibur Rahman's involvement with this conspiracy as early as September, 1964, when a revolutionary organization was formed 'for separating East Pakistan from the rest of the country.'
"The main plan of action of the Agartala conspiracy was to capture the armories of military units so as to paralyze them. The action was to be carried out in commando style and surprise was to compensate for the lack of manpower.
"In pursuance of these objectives, a meeting was arranged between the conspirators and the representatives of India who were to supply arms and ammunition. This meeting took place at Agartala in India on 12 July, 1967.

Hijacking Involved

"The conspirators were arrested in December, 1967, and one of them revealed that, apart from arms and financial aid promised by India for organizing an armed revolt in East Pakistan, India had told them that on the D-Day the government of India would block the air and sea routes linking East Pakistan with West Pakistan.
"This plan was actually carried out by India in February, 1971, when the hijacking of an India Airlines Fokker Friendship aircraft to Lahore and its subsequent destruction by the hijackers was actually seized upon by the Indian Government to ban overflights of Pakistan's civilian aircraft and to create tension between the two countries.
East Pakistanis reject the charges angrily. They assert that if Sheikh Mujib had been a conspirator, he would have seized power when it was offered by Pakistani President Yahya Khan in March, 1971, instead of having lengthy talks to discuss the substance of the proposed new Pakistani constitution.
They also assert that when Sheikh Mujib was tried in 1968 on the conspiracy charge, the charge was not proved and that the government looked rather silly and had to withdraw the case at the height of the political agitation against then President Ayub Khan in 1969.
On the hijacking case, East Pakistanis assert that Sheikh Mujib was the only Pakistani leader to express grave reservations over the incident. He called for the return of the plane and immediate judicial inquiry into the hijacking.

Conspiracy in doubt

The question of whether there was such a conspiracy and whether Sheikh Mujib was party to it have neither been proved nor disproved so far. Given the fact of Sheikh Mujib's trial being in secret, the world may not get a chance to judge for itself.
Whatever the outside view of these allegations, the fact remains that many people in the Pakistan armed forces and the Pakistan establishment and among the general population, believe them to be true.
This might explain in part why the Pakistani President kept protesting again and again, before and after the December election, that the armed forces would tolerate no move to divide Pakistan. It might explain why he kept insisting that the new constitution be the result of a compromise between East Pakistan and West Pakistan. And it might explain why there was an obvious reluctance on the part of the armed forces to hand over power to the Awami Leaguers unless they made a prior compromise on the new constitution and on the composition of the government that was to be formed after the constitution came into effect.
The present East Pakistan tragedy is not only a product of Indo-Pakistan tension but could also produce a far bigger tragedy, a war that could put both of the countries back 50 years. Unless the big powers, or the United Nations, can persuade the two countries to settle all their disputes - through arbitration, if necessary - and learn to live in peace, further trouble is certain.