Calcutta-Although the Indian government is still hopeful lint refugees from East Pakistan, who have inundated Eastern India. will go back within six months, this view is not shared by most of the Bengali politicians and administrators.
There is widespread feeling in West Bengal state, one of the four Indian states where more than 5 million of the nearly 7 million refugees are staying in overcrowded areas, that short of a military confrontation with Pakistan, the bulk of refugees will stay here.
Prime Minister Indira Gandhi has been making firm commitments to send the refugees lock. Her hope is that the pressure of world public opinion would force the Pakistan government to reach a political settlement in East Pakistan.
MORE TERROR
Despite her resolve to look after the refugees, the hope that the refugees would go back has been shattered by reports reaching here of continuing terror tactics of the Pakistan army.
Up to last Thursday, 6,850,000 East Pakistanis had trekked into India seeking safety from the Pakistan Army, which moved against the Bengali independence movement in East Pakistan March 25.
For most of the Hindus it is reminiscent of the partition of the subcontinent into predominantly 11111d11 India and Muslim Pakistan in 1947.
A 42-year-old Hindu. Santosh Mandal, who was barely able to cross into India from neighboring Jessore district, said. "Going back now would mean suicide for me.
"If I go back now I will not be able to trust my Muslim neighbors. They must have already usurped my 4-acre farm."
India feels that repatriation is the most desirable solution to the problem from a humanitarian point of view. The unwanted burden of caring for the destitutes is going to cost over $400 million in six months. More than 30 per cent of the refugees are still shelterless. Monsoon rains heat down incessantly mothers with babies in their arms huddled together under any shelter. India's attempt to provide shelter to 2,500.000 outside the border states or to set up camps in the interior have also not made much progress. Only about 1(10,00(1 have been moved so far.
Most of the chief ministers have either openly or less openly said that they would not like to accommodate refugees in their states.
Even Mrs. Gandhi was for a week prevailed upon by her home town, Allahabad, in Uttar Pradesh state, not to bring the refugees into the district.
Although the government leaders feel that repatriation is the most desirable solution from a humanitarian point of view. there is one major element that has upset the government's calculations.
That is the religions composition of the refugees, which the government has been concealing from the public. According to an unpublished government study, Hindus make up more than 90 per cent of the refugees, not 60 or 70 per cent as has Non generally reported. On July 3 Hindus were 5,952,000 or the 6.540,000. Whatever government takes over in East Pakistan, India's ability to send bail: the refugees would be difficult.
ENORMOUS COST
In the meantime. the continuing flow of refugees confronts this country with enormous costs in shelter, food and medical aid.
India has upped the figure of its international aid requirement to $400 million to look after the refugees for six months. International aid so far has come to $126 million.
The Hindus have no inclination to go back. A 35-year-old woman. Mrs. Hasibala Das, whose husband was killed during the crackdown, said that she "will never return."
"I have had enough, political solution or no solution. Even if independence comes, who will guarantee that it will not happen again?" she asked.
Even Muslims are not likely to return if West Pakistan continues to rule East Pakistan directly or through a puppet provincial regime. Some are marked men as followers of Sheikh Mujibur Rahman and his Awami League. Others were forced to flee because relatives were connected with the freedom movement or their villages were centers of liberation front action against the Pakistan army.
Meanwhile, locals in West Bengal are getting restive as the refugees are undercutting on labor wages. Many see no escape from the tide of refugees upsetting all the demographic political balance.
For instance. West Dinajpur district, whose population of 1,846,000 was 39.4 per cent Muslim, now has an additional 1,525,000 persons, mostly Hindu refugees. This has created tension in the area.