From Our Correspondent
Calcutta, May 11
The problem of refugees from East Bengal is threatening to assume unmanageable proportions, not merely in physical size but in political complexity. Observers are beginning to note the real danger of its leading to a crisis in India-Pakistan relations.

The number of refugees has gone up from about a million at the beginning of this month to well over two million. At this rate the influx must gravely disrupt economic and social life in the Indian states on the East Bengal border where all the refugees are still concentrated.

Delhi is reluctant to disperse them to other states as this might make their eventual repatriation to East Bengal more difficult. It being emphasized that there can be no question of resettling these people permanently in India and official agencies refer to them as evacuees to remind all concerned that they must return to East Bengal as soon as possible.

But no one can say when and how this will be possible, India will not force them back into war-torn East Bengal and there are signs that the Pakistan authorities might be reluctant to take them back even if the refugees were willing to return to a land still under West Pakistan's control.

Pakistan spokesmen have been claiming that people described as refugees are really Indians who had infiltrated into East Bengal and were pushed out by the Pakistan Army. This means that the refugees can go back to their homes only if East Bengal becomes independent or their safe return is guaranteed by a political settlement between the Pakistan Government and the people of East Bengal.

India can do little to bring about the latter arrangement and it can give effective help to the independence movement only at the risk of an open conflict with Pakistan.
The problem has other complexities which are less obvious but more immediately disturbing. It is believed that some Pakistan agents have crossed into India in the guise of refugees with the object of spying and creating Hindu-Muslim tension in sensitive areas. Activities of this kind have already been reported.

Still more serious is the reported smuggling of arms from East Bengal for the benefit of political extremists in the Indian border states. Since Maoist extremists in both Bengals have denounced the Bangle Desh movement as an imperialist conspiracy, they may make use of the present chaotic situation in East Bengal to build up armouries for their own kind of struggle on both sides of the border.

Intelligence sources here also suspect that the West Pakistan military authorities in East Bengal are not only encouraging a limited flow of arms into West Bengal for subversive activities but may also provide the West Bengal Naxalites (Maoists) with temporary sanctuaries inside East Bengal.

This view may be still largely speculative, but there is evidence that some arms and ammunition meant for the resistance struggle in East Bengal have already passed into the hands of political extremists on this side of the border. In fact, the Naxalites may not have been the only beneficiaries. There are other political groups in West Bengal equally interested in arms.

It is difficult to check such activities when the border is open for all refugees from East Bengal and attention is concentrated on the immediate problems of accommodation and relief.

It has been noted with satisfaction that there is now some international response to relief needs hitherto met entirely by India. Relief supplies from Oxfam and other British organizations have been appreciated, as have been assurances given by Mr. Charles Mace, leader of a team sent by the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees.

Mr. Mace, who is the United Nations Deputy High Commissioner for Refugees, has visited several refugee camps in West Bengal and has promised a substantial contribution to relief. After inspecting camps in Tripura he will return to Delhi on Saturday before flying back to Geneva.