Calcutta, May 27
Reports that monsoon rains will flood East Bengal within the next seven days have lessened the chances of Indo-Pakistani conflict for the time being.

But it is increasingly obvious that India might be forced into a war when the sun shines again if her economy and social peace continue to be threatened by the huge influx of refugees from East Pakistan.

For the present the world can be thankful for the forbearance and wisdom of the Nehru family. So far India has, at a tremendous cost to her economy, exercised great restraint and has not been tempted to march into East Pakistan to restore order.

The temptation is certainly great, but Mrs. Gandhi, the Prime Minister, knows that if she is forced to take the ultimate step she could engulf the whole of South Asia and perhaps the great powers in war.

China would certainly come to Pakistan's aid if India marched into East Bengal and this would immediately bring in Russia as India's main ally.

Ultimately India might find that she cannot afford not to go to war, if she alone is forced to shoulder the burden of the refugees from East Pakistan.

To appreciate the enormous problem which has suddenly been thrust on India. one has only to imagine how Britain would react if nearly four million penniless immigrants moved into the country in six weeks. and continued to flood in at the rate of 60,000 a day.

It is appropriate to use Britain as a parallel, because her population is equal to that of the four border states in which the refugees are concentrated.

The majority of the refugees an estimated 2.7 million have moved into border areas in West Bengal and have concentrated in frontier towns and around 296 food distribution points.

As a result the population of many small border towns, such as Hasnabad in the south, has increased suddenly from 10,000 to 100,000.

The population of the Bongaon subdivision adjoining the border has increased from 450,000 to 750,000.

Another 400,000 refugees have poured into the districts surrounding Coach Behar in the north and another 300,000 Bengalis have flooded the border towns in the strategic foothills of Assam.

But the greatest strain is being felt in the small state of Tripura in the eastern region where nearly 700,000 refugees have increased the former population by a half.

It is not difficult to imagine the economic problems and the social tensions which are building up. The cost of maintaining the horde of hungry and penniless people will shatter the Indian economy.

Feeding the refugees on the basis of 5p a head a day will cost India about £1m. every four days. Medicine, transport and administrative costs have to be added.

Even more important are the social tensions and the political implications which are likely to arise. In comparison to the Pakistani Army's cold-blooded attacks on its countrymen, the Indian response has been magnificent and heartwarming. But India's resources are limited.

Although 1.8m. refugees have been accommodated in schools, Government buildings and crude camps, another 1.7m. are living along the roadsides in the open.

A Government official, seconded to relief, has said that it is not difficult to visualize what is going to happen when the monsoon rains flood the area in the first week of June.

There is a fear that communal riots might be caused by stories of atrocities against Hindu refugees. The West Pakistani Army has deliberately attempted to drive its minority community of Hindus out of the country.

About 75 per cent of the latest arrivals are Hindus and they have crossed the border with stories of arson, looting and rape.

Hindu refugees will refuse to return to their former homeland in any circumstances, and India has already accepted that she will be saddled with a permanent problem.

From West Bengal to the southern tip of Tripura, one is confronted with an endless stream of hopeless faces. The lucky ones are under huge communal tarpaulins and hastily constructed thatch huts.

They stretch out in countless rows from Hasnabad in the southern region of Bengal to Cooch Behar in the North, from the hills of Meghalaya down to Sabroom in south Tripura.

But there is no shelter for the latest arrivals and they are camping in the open, on railway tracks, on the roadside and in the fields.