Dacca, June 23
East Pakistan, already one of the poorest and most ill-fated regions on earth, faces the prospect of yet another tragedy unless the martial law administration shows a great deal more determination than hitherto to avert it.

A serious famine is likely to begin in about four months and to last for a year or more. Many thousands may die—certainly many more than in the refugee camps in India—and several millions could be weakened by malnutrition.

This is the gloomy picture that emerges from aid officials resident here and from those who have visited East Pakistan in recent weeks. The cumbersome machinery of the United Nations, in cooperation with the Pakistan Government is at last grinding slowly into action, but it is feared that even if adequate external resources are made available (as they probably will be) the means for organizing their distribution within the province will not be able to handle the extra load.

The disruption of the transport system, and indeed of the entire civil administration, by the events of March and April, poses immense problems of organization. They could possibly be overcome to some extent by allowing foreign charitable bodies to send in relief teams. The Pakistan authorities, however, will countenance only contributions in cash or kind given either bilaterally or through the United Nations.

Mr Baghat el Tawil, a small, quiet Egyptian, arrived here a short while ago to coordinate the United Nations relief operations. The main agencies involved are the United Nations Children’s Fund (Unicef) and the World Food Programme.

Mr Baghat el Tawil will work in liaison with a newly established Pakistan Government coordinating committee composed of seven civilian and military officials Their first meeting has yet to be held but will probably take place either later this week or next

The Government has announced that it is expecting its annual shortfall in East Pakistan of some two million tons of grain. It has asked the United Nations to provide 250,000 tons at grain as well as 100,000 tons of edible oils. It hopes that the balance of the province’s needs can be satisfied through bilateral grants.

The Government has also asked for 30 boats—coasters, landing craft and ferries—for transporting food. This request may not be met however, unless supervision is permitted. to ensure that the boats are not simply commandeered by the military for their own uses, as has happened in the past.

This problem may now have been resolved by the resource of the Americans, who recently signed an agreement with the Government of Pakistan to provide $1m (£400,000) for the charter of boats with crews from third countries. The presence of foreign crews would make misuse of the vessels virtually impossible.

Foreign grain is brought by ship to the ports of Chittagong and Khulna. In normal circumstances 60 to 70 per cent of the grain brought to Chittagong, the main unloading point, is transported into the interior by rail. But all of this must now be carried by boat because the railway line has been cut by Bengali rebels operating from sanctuaries across the border in Tripura.

Aid officials consider that, apart from distribution difficulties, the combined effects of the cyclone and the more recent military operations on the domestically grown rice crop will be such as to push the overall grain shortfall this year up to about three million tons.

There are three rice crops each year, of which the main one, accounting for 75 per cent of total production, must be planted during the next month or so and harvested in the autumn. There are two smaller winter and spring crops.

One disaster area is likely to be in the north-west, which normally produces a rice surplus that makes up for the deficit elsewhere. There are bound to be considerable planting difficulties that will reduce the size of the summer crop.

There is shortage of labour caused by the exodus of refugees over the border into India. The whole commercial machinery of the countryside, which makes credit available for the purchase of seed, fertilizer and other essentials, has also been disrupted.

Another region that foreign experts are viewing with concern is the area affected by the cyclone in the south, which covers nearly 4,000 square miles and contains more than three million people.

The rice crop in this delta region was badly damaged by the floods and in some places completely destroyed. Livestock, including draught animals used for ploughing, was virtually wiped out in many parts. Distribution of relief supplies in this maze of waterways could be a formidable task.

Aid officials here feel that the situation might be improved if United Nations experts were permitted to supervise distribution of food in the field. The Pakistan Government insists, however, that it is perfectly capable of coping on its own and that there will be more than enough food to go round.