ESSEX, CONN.--Unless two rather unlikely developments occur, South Asia is in imminent danger of erupting into a tragic, needless war.

These developments are: First, that the ruling West Pakistan Government turns away from the path of terror against its own subjects in East Pakistan and agrees to a settlement that will stem the flow of frightened, homeless refugees into India and second, that the world community soon mounts a massive campaign to relieve India of the burden of supporting nearly six million refugees who have already crossed the border.

The Indian Government is making a Herculean effort to provide food, medical assistance and shelter to these destitute and frightened people. The cost, which is estimated at more than $10 million a week, is being assumed by India at a time when its economic assistance from the World Bank and the Consortium (the United States, Britain, France Italy, Germany, Japan and Canada) has been sharply reduced and more than $500 million in principal and interest on past debts is scheduled to be repaid this year alone.

These economic constraints are compounded by political factors. Prime Minister Gandhi has emphasized that the refugees belong to "every political persuasion-- Moslem, Christian, Buddhist and Hindu." But reports are now spreading that the West Pakistan military has begun to focus its fury on the Hindu minorities throughout East Pakistan. If this is true it is bound to create religious tension with India's 65 million Moslem minority.

Finally, India fears that an independent East Bengal may encourage West Bengal, where the Communist party Marxists are the largest single element, to merge into a single Bengali nation and thereby create a target for Chinese intrigue and subversion.

In a recent speech in the Indian Parliament, Mrs. Gandhi asserted, "This is not as some say 'an internal problem' of Pakistan. It is a problem which threatens the peace of South Asia. Has Pakistan the right to compel at bayonet-point not thousands, not hundreds of thousands, but millions to flee their homes? This is an intolerable situation. This Government may have its faults, but it does not lack courage. It is not afraid to take a risk that is a necessary risk." The possible sequence of events that may soon confront us is appalling:

(1) India in a desperate effort to cut off the flow of refugees, return the present refugees to their own homes and prevent the establishment of an extreme left-wing government in East Pakistan may move troops into East Pakistan;

(2) Pakistan may then be expected to reply by attacking India in Kashmir and the Indian Punjab;

(3) China may deliver an ultimatum to India (similar to the one she delivered in October of 1965 toward the end of the East Pakistan war);

(4) the Soviet Union then supports the Indian position and wards China off, and the escalation continues.

This scenario may be dismissed by many as a bad dream, in my opinion it is a very real possibility, and if the situation continues to drift, a probability.

Mrs. Gandhi's government has acted responsibly in its handling of the crisis on its northeast border, but the financial and political pressures are rapidly pushing India to the breaking point.

The world community through the United Nations channel by direct initiative or any other means, must act. What is happening in East Pakistan is an immoral and humanitarian outrage which must be condemned and stopped. At the same time India must be relieved of the responsibility for the care of the six million refugees . This long suffering, struggling, democratic country which a few months ago seemed about to achieve economic self-sufficiency must not be allowed to suffer, perhaps go under, because of a situation not of its own making.

It is reported in the press that members of the Consortium and the World Bank with the exception of the United States have agreed to stop economic aid to Pakistan until a political understanding is reached with East Pakistan and the East Pakistanis are assured their full share.

Since the outbreak of the struggle in East Pakistan in late March the United States has shipped three cargoes of military equipment to Pakistan that can only be used against her own people in East Pakistan or against India. This step has been taken despite a solemn assurance to Congress that no arms would be sent. It was first accepted as just another bureaucratic blunder which did not represent United States policy. However, in the last few days there is evidence this was not an accident but a deliberate decision.

If this is in fact correct the United States, once again, has committed an abysmal error in Asia, one that historians may find even more difficult to condone or excuse than the debacle in Indochina.