Bernard Braine, MP on East Pakistan
The slow march of famine
As sure as night follows day there will be an appalling famine in East Pakistan by October unless the international community intervenes now. That was the sombre conclusion reached by a non-governmental conference of South Asia experts which met in Toronto last week under arrangements made by Oxfam of Canada.

Last month a World Bank mission which had visited East Pakistan reported that they saw no signs of return to normal conditions. The people remained frightened and untrusting. Many workers and civil servants were failing to report for duty. Communications were completely disrupted.

As the weeks have slipped by the situation has continued to deteriorate. There are now over 7.5 million refugees in India and their numbers increase daily. Their appalling physical condition is proof enough of the plight of those left behind. Insurgency continues. Far from any return to civil administration, Shaikh Mujibur Rahman, the elected leader of the province, now faces trial before a secret military tribunal.

What is the basis for believing that the still greater disaster of famine now looms ahead for East Pakistan?

First it should be recognized that in spite of the abundant rainfall and rich soil of the province, hunger and malnutrition are endemic. The basic diet consists of rice supplemented by vegetables, fish and lentils. Meat and dairy products are rare luxuries. According to a World Bank report the average per capita per day cereal consumption last year was 16.1 ounces. This provided only 1,700 calories compared with the North American and West European average of 2,700 calories. Indeed, a Pakistan Government nutrition survey conducted in 1964 showed that even then the average protein intake of people in the East wing was inadequate in 85 per cent of the rural population and over half the children were on the borderline of malnutrition. The death rate among all liveborn children was 26 per cent before their fifth birthday, compared with a European average of 2.4 per cent.

The implications of all this were spelt out at the Toronto conference by Dr Jon Rohde of the Harvard Medical School who has recently returned from East Pakistan. His key point was that a people whose diet and wellbeing are highly marginal in “normal” times become dangerously vulnerable even if there is only a marginal shortfall in traditional food supplies. If, however, there is a major shortfall then massive famine is inevitable and millions are condemned to die.

What are the facts about the shortfall? From 1966 to 1970 East Pakistan produced an average of 10.8 million tons of grain a year but still had to import 1-2 million tons a year to offset continuing deficits. The Fourth Five Year Plan envisaged a substantial increase in domestic production by 1975 but even if this could have been achieved imports would still have been necessary because of rapid population growth.

Unfortunately, far from increasing, production has fallen catastrophically. According to figures quoted by Dr Rohde, based on recent estimates made by the United States Administration for International Development. domestic production in the coming year is likely to be 2.28 million tons below what was estimated before the present troubles. In short. East Pakistan faces its largest food deficit since the Bengal famine of 1943. Some idea of what is involved may be grasped by recalling that three million people are believed to have perished in that famine.

It is not difficult to enumerate the causes of this alarming situation. Hundreds of thousands of farmers have fled to India and are still fleeing. The agricultural credit system has totally collapsed. Public works programmes and private business activities have virtually ceased and throughout the province there is an acute shortage of cash. Hoarding is taking place and the price of rice has risen sharply.

Dr Rohde quoted United States AID estimates that some 2.9 million tons of grain imports will be needed to supplement domestic production merely to ensure an average daily consumption of 15 ounces (1,600 calories) a head. That is an absolute minimum since even a sedentary adult requires 1.600 to 1,900 calories to maintain reasonable health. But since the maximum import of food grains in any normal year up till now was 1.5 million tons in 1970 the prospect of importing and distributing nearly twice this amount in present circumstances is poor.

Even if the requisite quantities of food could be shipped and offloaded the ability to move them to deficit areas is severely limited. Chittagong and other ports are operating well below capacity because so many port workers have fled. Military operations by the army and sabotage by the insurgents have severely disrupted road and rail communications.

About 90 per cent of the population live in the rural areas and the proportion is now probably higher because half of the urban population has fled. But it is here, where the need is greatest, that the Pakistan Army’s hold is most tenuous. Thus there is real fear that if food distribution is left solely to the military they will give first priority to the restoration of order and will not hesitate to use food as a political weapon. If this happens the insurgents can be expected to disrupt the process.

Dr Rohde told the Toronto conference that against this background there were three urgent requirements. First, that international opinion should demand that the opposing parties in East Pakistan permit sufficient food to reach the affected areas regardless of whether these are under the control of the army or the insurgents. Second, the only way of ensuring that the food reaches the people in direst need was to persuade the Pakistan Government to accept that distribution should be under the supervision and administration of a greatly augmented UN staff. Third, that an international team of experts should be permitted to enter East Pakistan without delay. Its tasks would be to determine where are the areas of greatest need, to assess current food stocks and to decide on the quantities and type of relief supplies needed, to evaluate the extent of damage and to supervise the repair of communication, and transportation facilities for non-military purposes only, to establish food distribution centres accessible to air and water transport and to formulate equitable procedures of rationing and distribution.

Given these requirements, and given them quickly, there is a reasonable chance that an effective relief operation can be mounted. To cover immediate needs emergency food supplies should be flown in. To avoid congestion in the ports and to overcome the breakdown in road and rail communications ships should be used to stand off the coast and transfer supplies to an armada of small craft which can use the extensive waterways system to reach regional centres.

But time is desperately short. The world community must act now or be prepared to witness a human disaster of unimaginable proportions.

Mr Braine was the Under-Secretary of State for Commonwealth Affairs and is now chairman of the Commons Select Committee on Overseas Development Aid.