Rawalpindi, Nov 11
Pakistan allegations that India yesterday launched an attack of brigade strength at Belonia, in the Nokhali district of East Pakistan, were being treated with some scepticism by diplomatic sources here today. The report, however, is seen as evidence that the scale of the fighting is growing and that the Army’s grip on the eastern wing of the country is being eroded. The Pakistan press gave front-page headlines to the attack, which was described as the largest since the crisis began. So far, however, it has not provoked a new outburst of war fever here.

Some thousands of students at Lahore this morning marched through the streets protesting against Indian intervention and demanding that “A war till victory” should be launched against the enemy. They burnt effigies of Mrs Gandhi and of Sardar Swaran Singh, the Indian Foreign Minister.

Pakistan sources did not attach particular significance to the demonstration but saw it as part of the continuing agitation in Lahore by right-wing political groups. Some fears were being expressed that reports of an Indian offensive of this scale would strain the credibility of President Yahya Khan’s threat that Indian aggression would be met by war and thus put popular pressure on him to strike back in the west.

On the other hand, Pakistanis are used to a government-controlled press and take what they read with a pinch of salt. The conviction here remains that President Yahya does not believe that launching an attack would be to Pakistan's advantage.

The Chinese would seem to have pressed on him a policy of caution. There is some evidence to suggest that the three main points they put across to the Pakistan delegation recently in Peking were that they must find a political solution to the problems of the eastern wing; that they should on no account attack India; and that this was not the moment to raise the Indo-Pakistan conflict in the Security Council.

It seems that the Chinese do not want to risk an embarrassing dispute with Russia during their early days in New York. Now that India has heavily reinforced its positions in Kashmir, President Yahya has lost the advantage of surprise that he would have had had be struck some weeks ago. It is thought that the Pakistan forces in the west are now drawn up in defensive positions.

At the same time the decision of the United States to cancel arms licenses worth more than $3m has emphasized Pakistan's diplomatic isolation. The danger is that despair will get the upper hand and that repeated reverses in the east will drive Pakistan to some desperate action.