Dacca: President Yahya Khan of Pakistan has apparently survived an attempt to topple him from office and cancel the nation-wide elections scheduled for tomorrow. But his authority as head of the 300,000-strong Pakistan army appears to have weakened in a power struggle with his fellow generals in Dacca last week. The President strongly denied on Thursday that he had lost effective control of the army in a palace coup. “Nobody takes power out of my hands in a hurry”, he said. Yet reports persist that the martial law administration has passed to a ruling junta of generals with President Yahya reduced to a figurehead. Certainly the President is plainly under the close observation of army hawks supported by General Abdul Hamid Khan, the Chief of Staff and an old friend.

It was a move by this faction that supposedly lay behind the President’s sudden return to Rawalpindi earlier this month, after his trip to Peking. It also provides a clue to the Government’s original inertia following the Dacca cyclone disaster. Whatever happened in the capital is not known, but it is safe to assume that the electoral misgivings of the officer corps were stiffened by criticism of the Government’s poor relief effort. By the time the President got to Dacca to inspect the relief operation this criticism had crystalised into massive support for the Awami League party, which is now confidently expected to win nearly half of the 300 seats in the National Assembly.

This would mean that the army, which until now has enjoyed a privileged position, is faced with not only the first popularly elected National Assembly in Pakistan’s 23-year history, but with the strong prospect of a reliable majority lined up against them. The first task of the new Assembly will be to adopt a new constitution. This must be done within 120 days of the first session, and must conform to five basic principles laid down by President Yahya. Theoretically the President could reject the Assembly’s draft and dissolve the legislature, but he is reported to have reached an understanding here this week with Sheikh Mujibur Rahman, the powerful Awami League leader, aimed at reconciling the differences between them after the elections.

This has led the army to suspect that the President will secure his long-term Presidential ambitions in return for throwing his weight behind a triumphant Awami League. But there is more to it than this. Ever since the war with India in 1965, defence considerations have commanded about 60 per cent of Pakistan’s national budget, currently running at about £200 m a year. This has fostered a large military-commercial establishment with a big stake in the Army’s continued expansions. No popularly elected civilian government could rationally sanction this sort of military spending in a country as poor as Pakistan.

The issue is complicated by the fact that the army’s growth is made possible through the earnings of East Pakistan, while defence spending is almost entirely in the Western wing. The Eastern wing, in fact, is more interested in building trade with India than confronting her militarily. This is the dilemma facing Sheikh Mujibur Rahman, who is wedded to the idea of an autonomous East Pakistan - or Bengal, as he prefers to call it - with full control of her own resources. It is unlikely that he can satisfy both the Army and the 73 million people of East Pakistan at the same time. And it would be difficult for him to back down now.