Karachi. East Pakistan leader Sheikh Mujibur Rahman is left with two courses of action as the country totters on the edge of disintegration: he can make a unilateral declaration of independence or he can call his own session of the Constituent Assembly and invite leaders of both East and West Pakistan to attend. Mr. Z. A. Bhutto, the West Pakistan leader, would definitely refuse to attend the assembly session but it is likely that many other leaders from the minority provinces of West Pakistan would be prepared to join hands with Sheikh Mujibur.

The Punjab province in West Pakistan which has wielded military, economic and political power for two decades, realises that if the nation’s two wings are to stay together on peaceful terms, they will have to submit to the rule of the Bengali’s who have a large majority in the National Assembly by virtue of their larger population. There can be no doubt that the doves in the Administration who believe that tie Bengalis must be given their just share of power, have lost and President Yahya Khan’s latest moves have, perhaps, been motivated by advice from the Punjabi chauvinists and strengthened by fears within the Army that the defence machine will be cut down to size if the Bengalis come to power.

After being dominated and suppressed by the Army for a decade, Sheikh Mujibur and his Awami League have promised to drain it of its power if they come to power. So it is clear why elements from the Punjabi-led Army are advising the President to take measures to frustrate the process of the Constituent Assembly. It is understood that the President was assured earlier this week that Bengal would submit to military might if the Assembly session was called off. The popular Governor of East Pakistan, Vice-Admiral S.M. Ahsan, who subsequently resigned, advised the President against his decision to postpone the Assembly earlier this week. But President Yahya apparently acted on the advice of the hawks in his own Cabinet. The upsurge of trouble in Bengal has proved Admiral Ahsan to be right and the President has now had to back down and announce a new date for the Assembly session.

Military observers within Yahya Khan’s own Administration admit that it would be impossible to suppress the strong wave of Bengali nationalism or hold down the 75 million Pakistanis in the economically backward eastern wing by force. In the present crisis, much depends on what Mr. Bhutto decides to do. If he refuses to accept the President’s new invitation to attend the Assembly session, there could be a serious regional conflict in Pakistan, with the Punjab aligned against a regional combination of East Pakistan and the minority provinces of West Pakistan - the North-West frontier, Baluchistan and the Sind - who could frame the constitution without the Punjabi’s consent.

But in the final analysis, it is difficult to see how Sheikh Mujibur and Mr. Bhutto could resolve their differences in the Constituent Assembly and frame a constitution which would be acceptable to both wings. With all the goodwill in the world, President Yahya Khan could not ratify a document which was unacceptable to Mr. Bhutto, the powerful Punjab and subsequently the Army. And here lies the point of no return for, if the President should refuse to ratify such a constitution, framed by the Bengalis with all the power of their majority behind them, the Sheikh would perhaps have no other option but to declare that the West had seceded from the rest of Pakistan and the two provinces would part company for ever.