Time

With the awesome fury of a cyclone off the Bay of Bengal, civil war swept across East Pakistan last week. In city after crowded dusty city the army turned its guns on mobs of rioting civilians. Casualties mounted into the thousands. Though the full toll remained uncertain because of censorship and disorganisation in the world's most densely populated corner (1,400 people per sq. ml.) at week's end some estimates had 2,000 dead. Even if President Agha Mohammad Yahya Khan is prepared to accept casualties of a geometrically greater magnitude, the outcome is likely to be the final breakup of East Pakistan and the painful birth of a new nation named Bangla Desh (Bengal State).

The indistinct battle lines reflected the ethnic and cultural divisions that have beset Pakistan since its creation as a Moslem homeland when British India was partitioned in 1947. Two predominantly Moslem areas that used to be part of India became a new country "" the two parts separated by 1,000 miles of Indian territory. Thus though 80,000 West Pakistani soldiers were on hand to keep order in East Pakistan last week, their supply bases were 1,000 miles away and most food and ammunition had to be carried 3,000 miles around the coast of India. The troops, mostly tall, fierce Punjabis and Pathans were surrounded in East Pakistan by a hostile population of 78 million Bengalis. The civil war and it could be called no less promised to be long and bloody. The Bengalis, armed with a few looted guns, spears and often just bamboo staves, were ill-trained for a guerrilla war. But a resistance movement, once organised, might eventually force the West Pakistanis to depart. In a way the struggle evoked haunting memories of the Nigerian civil war of 1967-70, when the federal regime sought justification in the name of national unity and the Biafrans in the name of self-determination.

FIRST SHOT

Until last week, Pakistan political leaders seemed on the verge of settling their differences. Then in rapid order, three events carried the nation over the brink of violence. In Chittagong, a mob surrounded West Pakistani troops unloading supply ships. Where the first shots came from is unclear, but when the troops opened fire, 35 Bengalis were killed. Their political leader, Sheikh Mujibur Rahman, called a general strike to protest. Then Yahya Khan outlawed Mujib and his Awami League Party as "enemies of Pakistan" and ordered the armed forces to "do their duty".

In Dacca, army tanks and truckloads of troops with fixed bayonets came clattering out of their suburban base, shouting "Victory to Allah," and "Victory to Pakistan." TIME correspondent Dan Coggin, who, along with other newsmen, was subsequently expelled from Pakistan reported: ""Before long, howitzer, tank, artillery and rocket blasts rocked half a dozen scattered sections of Dacca. Tracers arched over the darkened city. The chatter of automatic weapons was punctuated with grenade explosions, and tall columns of black smoke towered over the city. In the night came the occasional cry of "Joi Bangla (Victory to Bengal)", followed by a burst of machine-gun fire.

The army ordered a strict 24-hour curfew in Dacca, with violators shot on sight. But soon the Free Bengal Revolutionary Radio Centre, probably somewhere in Chittagong, crackled into life. Over the clandestine station, Mujib proclaimed the creation of the "sovereign, independent Bengali nation," and called on its people to "resist the enemy forces at all costs in every comer of Bangla Desh." The defiant words, however, lacked military substance. At 1.30 a.m. the following day, soldiers seized the Sheikh in his home. Meanwhile, scattered rioting broke out in West Pakistan to protest the prospect of prolonged military rule.

The rupture in Pakistan stemmed from the country's first experiment with true democracy. After it was founded in 1947, Pakistan was ruled on the basis of a hand-picked electorate; Martial Law was imposed after an outbreak of rioting in 1969. During those years, Pakistan was divided by more than geography. Physically and psychologically the 58 million tall, light-skinned people of the West identified with the Islamic peoples who inhabit the area of land stretching as far as Turkey. The smaller, darker East Pakistanis seemed to belong to the world of South and South-east Asia. More divisive yet was the fact that the westerners monopolised the government and the army had dominated the nation's commercial life. The East Pakistanis have, over the years, earned the bulk of the country's foreign exchange with their jute exports, yet the majority of schools, roads, new factories and modern government buildings went up in the west.

Eager to relinquish power and return the country to civilian rule, Yahya called elections last December for a National Assembly to write a new constitution. East Pakistanis gave Sheikh Mujib's Awami League 167 of the region's 169 seats and an overall majority in the combined nation's 313 seat assembly chamber. Mujib's platform called for a virtual dismantling of the central government, leaving it in charge of defence and diplomacy and giving the provinces total control of taxes, trade and foreign aid.

Determined to hold the country together, Yahya resisted Mujib's demands for autonomy. Postponing the Constituent Assembly, he flew to Dacca, and in eleven days of meeting with Mujib came almost within sight of a compromise agreement. Yahya, however, demanded that the leader of West Pakistan's majority party, ex-Foreign Minister Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto, also be a party to the agreement. Bhutto insisted on heading the foreign ministry while Mujib maintained that with an overall majority, he had the right to form a government without Bhutto.

MENDICANT AMONG NATIONS

If East Pakistan eventually takes its place in the world community as Bangla Desh, it will have the world's eighth largest population and lowest per capita income ($50 a year). It will, inevitably, become a mendicant among nations, and the U.S. will face the need to increase the $150 million a year in foreign aid that it now gives to the combined wings of the country. East Pakistan has little industry to speak of, and the world-demand for jute is gradually dropping. West Pakistan will also be left smaller and poorer, though it now has the beginning of an industrial base, consisting primarily of textile mills.

If anyone gains from the sorry split, it will be India, which would face a greatly weakened adversary. Mujib has indicated that he would like to establish friendly relations with New Delhi and, particularly, with the Hindu Bengalis just across the border. He does not share West Pakistan's hostility toward India over the disputed territory of Kashmir. West Pakistan, left with a smaller economic base and without the East's foreign exchange earnings, could not easily maintain as strong an army as the one thoughtful Indians could not regard their neighbour's troubles with too much satisfaction. India itself is, by no means, immune to the centrifugal forces of tribalism and many of its people remember all too well Nehru's recurring nightmare; a subcontinent alternating between periods of political unity and bloody interludes of division and strife.

"RAISE YOUR HANDS AND JOIN ME"

When West Pakistani soldiers arrested Sheikh Mujibur ("Mujib") Rahman last week, they gave him a chance to add to an unenviable record. Mujib has already spent more time in prison than any other major Pakistani politician; nine years and eight months.

What makes the Sheikh so unpopular with West Pakistanis is the fact that for more than 23 years he has been the leading advocate of Purbadesh (regional autonomy) for East Pakistan. In last December's elections, Purbadesh was Mujib's chief issue. After visiting the cyclone-devastated Ganges Delta region just before the general elections, he declared: "If the polls bring us frustration, we will owe it to the million who have died in the cyclone to make a supreme sacrifice of another million lives, if need be, so that we can live as free people."

Grey-haired, stocky and tall for a Bengali (6ft.) the bespectacled Mujib always wears a loose white shirt with a black, sleeveless, vestlike jacket. A moody man, he tends to scold Bengalis like so many children. He was born in the East Bengal village of Tongipara 51 years ago to a middle class landowner (his landlord status accounts for the title of Sheikh). Mujib studied liberal Arts at Calcutta's Islamia College and Law at Dacca University. He lives with his wife Fazilatunnessa, three sons and two daughters in a modest two- storey house in Dacca's well-to-do Dhanmondi section. Except for a brief stint as an insurance salesman, he has devoted most of his time to politics. First he opposed British rule in India. After the subcontinent's partition in 1947, he denounced West Pakistan's dominance of East Pakistan with every bit as much vehemence. "Brothers," he would say to his Bengali followers, "do you know that the streets of Karachi are paved with gold? Do you want to take back that gold? Then raise your hands and join me." He was first jailed in 1948, when he demonstrated against Pakistan Founder Mohammad Ali Jinnah for proclaiming Urdu the new nation's lingua franca.

Yet he has remained, in many respects, a political moderate. He is a social democrat who favours nationalising major industries, banks and insurance companies. In foreign exchange policy too, he follows a middle course. Where West Pakistan's Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto favours closer ties with China and the Soviet Union and is stridently anti-Indian, Mujib would like to trade with India and is regarded as moderately pro-Western.