Economist

It is a standard practice of governments, especially those which are fighting wars, to put out self-justifying propaganda. This propaganda may fail to convince, which is troublesome. Or it may convince so well that the propagandists themselves are taken in, which is positively dangerous. The Government of Pakistan has clearly dug itself a credibility gap. The question now is whether it has also buried its head in the sand.

President Yahya Khan’s press conference on Monday, his first public appearance since he ordered his army to take over East Pakistan two months ago, did not resolve the issue either way. The President showed some statesmanship when he refused to rise to Mrs. Gandhi’s hints earlier in the day that the Indians might be forced to intervene militarily in East Bengal. He showed some realism when he admitted that the state of Pakistan’s economy "is so bad that I cannot tell you". And he showed some flexibility when he modified the total ban on the Awami League and agreed to accept back a number of refugees. But, he went on to load his offers with conditions and to repeat some of his spokesmen’s familiar nonsense.

It is logically consistent, if nothing else, that a government which has not acknowledged that it is fighting a civil war should not recognise refugees from that war. Accordingly Pakistan radio refers to "an imaginary influx" and labels the refugees "Hindu fifth columnists" and "Indian infiltrators". Not until last week did the government finally concede that the fleeing millions might include any innocent victims at all. President Yahya seemed to be opening the way to a solution last Friday when he declared that "bonafide Pakistani citizens who left their homes due to disturb conditions" would be welcomed back to East Pakistan. But who are bonafide citizens? On Sunday Pakistan Radio insisted that these are only a tiny fraction of the refugees, while the vast majority are "miscreants" and Indians. And on Monday the President himself vowed not to "open the floodgates for Indian destitutes."

The most charitable explanation for this kind of language is that the Pakistanis have got themselves hooked on a fable of Indian inequity which they cannot abandon without intolerable loss of face. But they also appear to be using this propaganda line to justify a policy which will prevent significant numbers of East Bengalis from ever returning home. One group of refugees that is likely to be excluded altogether under this selective approach are the East Bengali Hindus. The migration of the Hindus is a classic case of how propaganda can become self-fulfilling. Just after the March action, West Pakistani newspapers began accusing the Hindus in East Bengal of having illicit links with the Indians. The army then made the Hindus a special target for revenge, forcing them to flee to India in disproportionate numbers. This is now taken as proof that the Hindus were Indian saboteurs all along.

The prospect that great numbers of refugees will become permanent residents of India—either by their own choice or as a result of Pakistani exclusion—is the most terrifying aspect of the current crisis for the Indian government. On Monday Mrs. Gandhi appealed to the rest of the world and particularly to the great powers to take necessary measures by putting pressure on Pakistan.

In fact the Indians have good cause for decrying "the unconsciously long time which the world is taking to react to this stark tragedy." Two months have passed by, since the killing began in East Pakistan, foreign governments have uttered scarcely a cautionary word to the Pakistanis and have contributed nothing very impressive to the maintenance of the 335 refugee camps in India. The Indians estimate that just keeping the current total of refugees alive for six months (disregarding the 60,000 more who are streaming in every day) may cost over £100 million.

Clearly the Indians cannot be expected to bear this financial burden on top of the all but intolerable political strain which the refugee influx has imposed. Tensions are rising every day in parliament; in the border states and along the frontier where Indian and Pakistani troops had several shoot-outs this week. Foreign relief funds — in huge quantities - would relieve certain pressure. But the danger of conflict will continue to mount so long as the refugees keep streaming over the border. And the only government that can break this vicious cycle is Pakistan’s.

President Yahya raised a glimmer of hope for such a breakthrough on Monday when he promised to produce a plan for return to civilian government within two to three weeks. But his more important promise that day was to relax the blanket ban on political activity by members of the Awami League. Like his offer to the refugees, the value of this selective amnesty will depend on how widely he defines the "genuinely misled" as opposed to those who must be punished for their crimes. Sheikh Mujib, the imprisoned Awami leader, clearly belongs to the second category, for the President repeated the story about a Mujib secessionist plot. But unless the President actively welcome back Mujib’s lieutenants, including, at least some of those who sought refuge in India, he will find that no plan for civilian rule in the east, or indeed at centre, can get off the ground.