New Delhi, November 14. While talk of all-out war with Pakistan has been somewhat subdued during Mrs. Gandhi’s absence on her tour of Western capitals, tomorrow’s opening of Parliament is likely to see a revival of pressure. With Indian and Pakistani troops confronting each other on the borders, no Indian official talks of a third alternative to the crisis. In New Delhi the only viable options are continued confrontation or war. Speaking of Mrs. Gandhi’s efforts in the summer to counter pressures for war, a Foreign Ministry official observed: “She is not a miracle we can use in every situation.”

In spite of charges, from Right-wing critics who openly favour war, that the Government is doing nothing to alleviate the pressures caused by almost eight months of strife in East Pakistan. Mrs. Gandhi’s policy has been what one observer calls “a strategy of pressure.” “Indians are turning the crank,” another source says, “hoping that there is some give in Islamabad.” Less than two weeks ago, the latest turn of the crank was disclosed when an Indian Defence Ministry spokesman labeled the battle at Kamalpur, near the border of East Pakistan and Tripura State, a development in the Indian- Pakistan confrontation.

The spokesman was ordered to withdraw his words a day later, but it was confirmed that Indian troops had crossed into Pakistan and eliminated a Pakistani battery after a sharp battle. A second battle, which sources say involves regular Indian and Pakistani forces, continued for several days last week near Belonia, not far from Kamalpur. Some Indians speak of possible further increases of military pressure, including the use of planes and ships against Pakistani troops in East Pakistan. Speculation has given rise to rumours that the Mukti Bahini guerrillas have acquired an air force. The rumours are absurd because the guerrillas could launch planes only from Indian airfields. But they are in keeping with the Indian policy of officially denying direct involvement, and describing all fighting as between Mukti Bahini and the Pakistani army.

The Indian strategy of pressure is a gamble that Pakistan can be convinced to abandon military occupation of East Pakistan without a full Indo- Pakistani war, and before economic and social pressures become unmanageable in India. These pressures threaten Mrs. Gandhi’s Government and her Congress Party as well as the stability of Eastern India now choked with over nine million refugees. “We cannot be asked to be helpless spectators at the disintegration of our country resulting from our neighbour’s inability to solve its problems.” Mr. D. P. Dhar, head of India’s policy planning commission, and the second man in the Foreign Ministry, said last week.

Prices are said to be rising at about 1.5 per cent monthly throughout India, and it is estimated that the cost of sheltering the refugees to the end of March will total about £300 millions. Of this foreign nations have promised more than £100 millions and new taxes are expected to provide over £20 millions. Mr. Dhar and other officials stress there is a limit to how long India can bear the financial burden and face the political risks of the situation. They are vague about the timetable, but most of them speak of a breaking point around January, or at the latest before the monsoon in April.

Mrs. Gandhi has committed herself to returning the refugees to East Pakistan, but there is widespread scepticism that the majority will go back. Officials also fear the refugees will increasingly become the symbol of governmental failure. Government leaders have deliberately played down the anti-Hindu nature of Pakistan’s military occupation, but knowledge of persecution has spread gradually. Observers credit tales of atrocities against Hindus as a major factor in the growing hawkishness of the Indian population. In addition to the danger that Hindu extremists might seek vengeance by attacking Moslems in India, the Government is also concerned that the refugees will add to the political radicalization of Eastern India - particularly of West Bengal. “The entire extreme Left-wing Government in the Eastern region was born from the womb of earlier refugee influxes,” Mr. Dhar said.

West Bengal, plagued by desperate poverty and overcrowding, has not had a stable State Government for years. Its largest party is the Communist Party (Marxist). The pro-Mao Naxalites keep up an intermittent campaign of assassination and terror in Calcutta and rural areas of the State. “There is real danger that Eastern India could go completely out of control,” one observer said. “Before that happens,” an official stressed, “there will be war with Pakistan. We cannot wait for ever.” The unanswerable question is how long India can wait. Indian officials speak of a solution in months, not years.

However, it appears unlikely to most observers that the Mukti Bahini can win with present levels of Indian arms supply and training, in less than a year. At the same time, while all officials publicly welcome efforts to establish talks between the rebels and the Pakistan military Government, the rebels have become increasingly wedded to total independence. There might be nothing to discuss at a table. “I don’t see any opportunity for the withdrawal of troops from the borders, or for defusing of tension until the cause of the problem is solved,” Mr. Dhar said.

The cause is East Pakistan. But, whether the Indian strategy of pressure succeeds in forcing a political solution on Pakistan, or leads to an all-out attack against India, or runs out of time in the face of internal Indian pressures, many observers believe East Pakistan will coming to create many problems in the future. There is little discussion here of what sort of Government may emerge, or how order can be reimposed in East Pakistan. Independent, it would be one of the poorest nations in the world and would have to build an administrative structure, after a shattering civil war, with a shortage of experienced men. As part of Pakistan, many East Pakistanis would feel their revolution had been betrayed, and opposition to the Central Government would continue. As an Indian client state, it would mean another 75 million poor, 85 per cent of them Moslems, demanding a share of India’s limited resources.