New Delhi, November 22. Independent military sources in New Delhi say that India and Pakistan have lined up their warlike resources, and that there remains only the political decision of whether to unleash them. All attention is focused on the Eastern front, but the issue will be decided in the West.

In January, after the hijacking of an Indian aircraft in Kashmir, the Indian army took up defensive positions in the Punjab area. These have been reinforced, notably in June and October. In the East the army had already moved in in some strength because of civil disorder in West Bengal. These forces, too, have been reinforced since the Bangladesh crisis broke out. It is not easy to go round counting heads, obviously, but estimates put the Indian deployment at eight divisions in the West, of which one is armoured. In the East, are some five divisions, deployed all around East Pakistan with probably one independent armoured brigade in support. Basically Bangladesh is not tank country, being riven by the innumerable offshoots of the Ganges, though tanks could operate in the northwest corner. The Pakistanis have three divisions in the east, mostly in the towns, and subject to constant harassment by the Mukti Bahini guerrillas. In the West they have moved up about eight divisions, including two armoured. On both sides this represents far more than might normally be expected for defensive purposes.

But, as Mrs. Gandhi has said, peace can be achieved only when President Yahya Khan decides to sort out the political problems of his fragmented country and create conditions in which the 10 million refugees - or evacuees, as they are sometimes called here - can return. Whichever way you turn, you always come back to the miserable hordes squatting in camps, or even in gardens, all along the border. Passive though they are as individuals, they represent a potent force for conflict.

The Indian attitude, expressed with growing irritations, is that the world is running around bleating about the situation but doing little to cope with it. The Finance Ministry here is frantically trying to workout next year’s Budget for the Central Government and has almost given up in despair. It cannot hope to try allocating resources until it knows how long it will have to carry the burden of the refugees. The official estimate is that one year’s relief will cost £330 millions. So far, the world at large has contributed L35 millions in cash and £30 millions worth of food and other goods. Is India expected to find the rest?

Mukti Bahini forces bring back to base those injured during the fighting with Pakistani troops near Satkhira.

With the struggle India already faces to feed its 547 millions and offer them a better standard of living, it is hard to blame Indians for looking to the richer nations to relieve the burden or take it over. “How would you feel if we shipped a million refugees to Britain and let you get on with the problem,” I was asked by one Indian, and there is no pat answer.

Proportionately that is the size of the problem here, and the British are kicking up a fuss about the relatively micro-scale number of immigrants we let in. The refugees arrived, moreover, not because of any Indian political action but because of the political intransigence of the Pakistani Government. What would the British reaction be if some holocaust in France brought a million Frenchmen across the Channel?

There are other pressures too. Ten years ago the climate in the subcontinent was such that India felt obliged to spend only £161 millions on defence. Since the war with Pakistan of 1965, and the earlier Chinese invasion, the amount has risen enormously. By 1966 it was running at £500 millions annually. This year’s budget is to £690 millions. In the recent crisis a spate of Soviet air defence systems are said to have been pouring in, and they would not be handed out for nothing. So the cost is probably even higher. This means that each Indian is having to contribute £1.25 of his annual yearly income of £30 in buying totally unproductive equipment to fend off his neighbours. With a population that has increased by 50 per cent in 20 years and looks set to go on at the same rate, it does not seem the best way of using resources.

Now the Indian is faced with handing over another 50p a year to feed foreigners, although he is hard put to keep himself and his family alive. It is hardly surprising that he gets emotional and belligerent. The Big Powers continue to urge President Yahya Khan to settle the Bangladesh issue, but it is hard to know what they expect of him. The reality seems to be that the East will go its own way. The events of March 25, with all their duplicity and bloodshed, make it virtually inconceivable that the Punjab and East Bengal can don the same harness again.