The reported moves by the military adviser of the Governor of East Pakistan to find sensible terms of surrender appear to have failed. All such efforts have been stopped by General Niazi, the Pakistan commander in Dacca, and sternly silenced by General Yahya Khan. It will be sad if this means that the battle will go on for some days yet and that lives will be needlessly lost in the cause of soldierly honour. Does the Pakistan Government think that by fighting on to the last in the east its army can exact some worthwhile price from India?

Everyone now agrees that East Pakistan is lost to the generals; they themselves admit that the province cannot be held. Many people will think that they have forfeited their authority over it ever since the crudely stupid assault last March and the ruthless suppression that followed it. They will now pay the price of seeing the future of the province put into the hands of others. This must mean that if Pakistan is ever to be reconstituted as between western and eastern wings it will have to be done by the free action of both independent units. This is hardly a political calculation that will be made by a defeated army. Having lost in one quarter they will be looking for success in another; thus their priority will be to make enough advance into Kashmir in the hope of extracting concessions from India. With the loss of East Pakistan it might be easier to arouse opinion at the United Nations once again to press Pakistan’s case over Kashmir. Judging by the rate of military progress in the north-west this may mean prolonging the war.

If Pakistan’s rulers could think less of the war and more of the peace the open question of East Bengal’s future could still concern them, even now. Their chief hope of rescuing anything would be in releasing Sheikh Mujib and allowing him to return to take charge of the government that India has recognised. The Indians should welcome him, since they face serious difficulties in what could be a turbulent transition period. Nevertheless Sheikh Mujib would have the great advantage of not being beholden to the Indians as his colleagues have become in eight months of existence as guests. By returning now Sheikh Mujib would be able to strengthen the national appeal of the Bangladesh government at a time when it may badly need his authority. No one can assess the divisions that have occurred in the ranks of Bengali Muslim opinion, or between different groups of guerrillas, or between the guerrillas as a military force and the civilian leaders of Bangladesh - not to mention the hesitations of Hindu refugees doubtful of returning to East Bengal from India.

Even More urgent is the need to bring peace in East Bengal among people who this year already have twice been divided in vendettas. Bengali Muslims killed Biharis and Punjabis; then the tables were turned and Bengalis suffered at the bands of the non-Bengalis. As power passes once again how many more bodies will be hacked to pieces in the impersonal hatreds governed by nothing but a religious or regional or supposedly, ethnic otherness ? Sheikh Mujib alone might have the authority to arrest the bloodshed. Most of all, for those grasping at hopes in Islamabad, might be Sheikh Mujib’s willingness to consider some connexion with Pakistan in the west. He was not elected on a platform of secession and in the new circumstances he might have misgivings at heading a government unduly dependent on India. The Indians themselves, behind all their present confidence, must feel apprehensive at the problems, that face them in rehabilitating East Bengal politically and economically and providing for the return of the refugees - if that is even possible. They might have much more to gain than to lose from the return of Sheikh Mujib.

But is it possible? The government in Pakistan - as we have now learnt - was responding to American pressure in conceding some genuine negotiation with Awami League representatives. The latest American move, suggesting that the question be taken up by the Security Council again, takes note of the fact that most of East Pakistan is now occupied by Indian troops and believes that the opportunity of a cease-fire will be much better. Behind the urgency of a cease-fire in the war is the scarcely less urgent task of bringing peacefully to birth a new East Bengal. Sheikh Mujib is the only man whose authority could ease that birth.