Dacca. The People’s Democratic and Socialist Republic of Bangladesh is politically at a great disadvantage without its leader, Sheikh Mujibur Rahman, who is still in detention in West Pakistan. For it was his vision and personality alone that inspired the Bengalis of East Pakistan to return a solid majority of Awami League members - 167 out of a total of 169 - to the National Assembly in the election of December, 1970.

Sheikh Mujib is the only living Bengali, whose name is a household word from the monsoon-flooded hamlets of the Upper Ganges to the urban districts of Dacca or Chittagong. Unhappily, few people outside the capital and the political circles of Calcutta have ever heard of the new Prime Minister, Tajuddin Ahmed, formerly Secretary-General of the Awami League. At the moment Mr. Ahmed appears unable to break through the overwhelming chaos and confusion which has been the most notable feature of the new State since the Cabinet reached Dacca from its exile in Mujibnagar, the mythical capital, which was in reality Calcutta. Nor has the new Prime Minister been able to inspire his colleagues in the Cabinet and the administration to get down to the vital work of reorganisation and reconstruction.

It was fortunate that the Indian Army restored law and order in Dacca before the Government arrived and dealt with the bloodletting, fanaticism and reprisals which marked, indeed disgraced, the first days of the independent State.

EMPTY HANDS

To be fair, after 13 years of riiartial law it is not surprising that the politicians are inexperienced. Doubtless, too, after months of exile, it is tempting for them to fill their offices with country cousins who have walked to Dacca with garlands, rather than face up to the formidable tasks ahead. The Government has already received considerable temporary help and protection from criticism in its difficult task through the presence of a personal representative of the Indian Prime Minister, Mrs. Gandhi, who sent Mr. D. P. Dhar, chairman of the Policy Planning Committee of India’s External Affairs Ministry, and a team of high-level experts to advise. Certainly Mr. Dhar is the only civilian in Dacca with sufficient energy and drive to cut through some of the inertia and muddle which besets the administration.



Over half the staff have returned to their desks in Government offices, where they await, with empty hands, directives from Ministers. As they have worked, albeit as loyal Bengalis, for the West Pakistan regime, they are too timid and uncertain of their own future to undertake even routine tasks on their own initiative. They all fear they will soon be replaced by bright young men who left East Pakistan after March to fight with the Bangladesh guerrillas or to take part in the political life of Mujibnagar. While order is maintained in the main streets of Dacca by the Police, with the Indian Army in the background, the Mukti Fouj guerrillas ar6 still largely in control of the countryside. Former guerrillas with their rifles slung behind their chairs sit at desks in the administrative offices and police-stations. In some districts they are efficient and have re-established law and order so successfully that shops have begun to open and local business has resumed. The ex-Mukti Fouj claim to be under the orders of their officers in Dacca but refuse to give up their arms, which they say they need to keep the peace. In other villages a rabble of armed youths calling themselves freedom fighters have taken over. Bodies are not buried, looting continues and the inhabitants dare not return from their wartime hiding places. The vast majority of the genuine guerrillas, or freedom fighters as they prefer to be called, feel they have earned the right to carry arms and, for the time being at least, to live off the land they have liberated. Almost, all of them pay lip service to the leadership of Sheikh Mujib as “the father of the nation”, but very few of them support the policy of the Awami League or the present Government. Many of the former guerrillas admit their revolutionary tendencies and express fairly orthodox pro-Moscow Communist political sentiments.

Meanwhile, the Naxalites, who fought as a Maoist group, are finding the anti-Bangladesh attitude of Peking somewhat difficult to explain. But despite this incongruity they still have a strong following in the south¬western areas of the delta and on the northern bank of the Ganges near Dacca. Few of the former guerrillas outside Dacca and the main towns envisage joining the national militia which the Prime Minister has initiated as a clearing house for “the brave young men.” Once in it they will be able to choose whether they wish to continue service in the Army, the Police, the Civil Service, or say, go to India to be trained as engineers for technical work on the railways.

Indeed, in spite of this consideration from Mr. Ahmed, the former guerrillas refer to him and his Cabinet, in scornful terms. Nor do they approve of their form titular commander-in-chief, Colonel A. Osmani, who as Minister of Defence is, with the help of Indian officers, now trying to form the new Army of Bangladesh. There is no doubt the guerrillas have had a considerable leftist - almost revolutionary - political influence in the districts where they have been based. This may account for a widespread demand for the holding of new elections, which the Prime Minister refuses to consider. The only concession the Government has made to the established opposition parties is to set up a Consultative Committee on a national and district level composed of the four main parties. But the leader of the National Awami Party, Prof. Muzzaffar Ahmed, who demanded representation in a coalition or National Government, is far from satisfied.

The Professor, whose programme is pro-Moscow in tone, unlike the majority of Bengali politicians devoted much of the eight-and-a-half months of civil war to the production of a clear and coherent economic policy for the country which has deeply impressed foreign observers. Other parties represented in the Consultative Committee include the once pro-Peking National Awami League group led by the ailing and aged Mr. Bhashani, who is still in New Delhi, the small Bangladesh Congress party and the rump of the official pre-partition Communist party, led by Mr. Moni Singh.

The new State expects massive help from the United Nations to help with the rehabilitation of the refugees. Otherwise, it will initially at any rate be dependent on India to back the new currency and provide what material help the Treasury in Delhi can spare. A vast investment programme is urgently needed and, although Indian capitalists will assist, the sums involved are likely to be too small to make the impact required at the present moment. In view of the Government’s declared intention to nationalise the jute and all other key industries, little capital can be expected from the United States or Western Europe.

GUIDANCE NEEDED

Much will depend on the long-term help and advice the Indians are prepared to give and the number of technicians they will release for work in Bangladesh. For the excitable, intolerant and highly emotional Bengalis will need guidance in almost every sphere on industry and agriculture. British investments in the new State amount to over the £100 million in jute, tea, petroleum, chemicals, tobacco and engineering. But considerable sums will be required in, say, the tea industry before the gardens reach their 1969 production figure of 50 million pounds weight.

The Indian advisers already here seem optimistic about the future. They claim the roads, bridges, ferries and harbours damaged during the civil war since March pose no major problems - they can all be repaired in a matter of months. Then they envisage a steady export of foreign-currency-earning jute and tea. Indian generals talk continuously of “pulling out” as soon as the new Bangladesh Army is trained. But it is most unlikely to be as easy or as smooth as they appear to think. Should Sheikh Mujib be allowed to return to Dacca within the next few weeks, the present Government would stand a slim chance of survival. But as West Pakistan is most unlikely to release him in time to be of assistance to Mr. Ahmed’s Government, most observers forecast of grave political unrest combined with the Indian Army will be forced to maintain law and order.