Washington Star/Evening Star

With each day that passes, the chances of reaching a political settlement between East and West Pakistan decrease and the danger of war between Pakistan and India grows. Despite the claims of the government in Islamabad, the military situation in East Pakistan is anything but under control. The repressive efforts of the army which began on March 25 to crush the Bengali movement toward autonomy go on. Today, according to reports, whole villages are being systematically destroyed. And each time they are, other whole villages are abandoned, their inhabitants joining the flood of refugees fleeing toward India. Again despite the claims of West Pakistani officials, government administration in the eastern province has virtually ceased to exist. In theory, an appointed civilian government has been installed for several weeks under the leadership of Dr. A.M. Malik. In fact, the army is the only authority that exists, with martial law in force throughout the whole country.

Meanwhile, the guerrilla resistance movement is growing in size and effectiveness. With India supplying sanctuary and support, the “Mukti Bahini” or Liberation Forces, of the Free Bengal movement are stepping up their harassment of government forces and inflicting growing casualties. Reprisals inflicted on unarmed civilians only make matters worse, creating new freedom fighters along with refugees.

In India the situation is rapidly becoming intolerable. It is now estimated that more than 8 million East Pakistanis, most of them Hindus, are jammed into refugee camps along the border, adding enormously to the problems of India’s normally unstable and restive eastern frontier region. The sheer number of these refugees, increasing at a rate of about 50 000 a week, imposes a hopeless burden in India. And with the possibility of wide-spread famine in East Pakistan, the refugees flood, if anything, is expected to increase in the months to come.

Inevitably, the pressure on the Indian government to take some decisive action is building up. Until now, Prime Minister Indira Gandhi has moved with restraint, carefully avoiding any move, such as the recognition of Bangla Desh (Bengal Nation) that might provoke a third round of fighting between India and Pakistan. The Indians are confident enough of their military capability if war with Pakistan should erupt: they believe they would win it and they also believe that the major powers with interests in the area — Russia, China and the United States—would have the good sense not to get involved. But when it comes to what might result from such a war—in either East or West Pakistan they are a good deal less confident. The Indians are taking no comfort in the clear signs of a deteriorating political situation in West Pakistan. The government in Islamabad, having failed to put down the Bengali rebellion with a quick, overwhelming show of military force, now seems very uncertain how to deal with the situation from here. Criticism of the military government of Mohammed Yahya Khan is increasing. And the leading civilian political figure in West Pakistan, Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto, is talking openly about the possibility of a revolution or a coup d’etat against the military junta that runs the country. In this complicated and very dangerous situation, there is one man who conceivably could bring about a settlement which would be less than disastrous for the major parties concerned. He is Sheikh Mujibur Rahman, head of the now outlawed Awami League of East Pakistan, whose party won a clear majority in the country’s national elections last December.

Since the army crackdown on March 25, Sheikh Mujibur has been under arrest in West Pakistan. Charged with treason, he has been tried in secret by a military court. The verdict, which carries the threat of a death sentence, has not been announced.

Sheikh Mujibur is believed to be the only Bengali leader with his prestige and personal following, who might be able to reverse the ruinous trend toward chaos in East Pakistan. Even he would have great difficulty in selling any Political solution to his followers that aimed at anything less than full independence. But without him, no solution is even conceivable.

It is doubtful, to be sure, that the government of West Pakistan is rational enough at this point to acquit the Sheikh of the charges against him and enter into serious negotiations. The essential thing is that the possibility should not b6 fore­ closed by the conviction and possible execution of the Bengali leader. The United States, which has continued to supply aid to Pakistan in the hope of exerting some restraining influence on the government in Islamabad, should use whatever leverage it has to prevent that ultimate tragedy.